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Suburban and rural voters make Stitt a winner — again

admin by admin
November 10, 2022
in Democratic


Republican-turned-Democrat Joy Hofmeister may have made Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt sweat his reelection a little — and spend a couple million dollars of his own money in doing it — but in the end she was not able to loosen the GOP grip on suburban and rural voters.

For all of its sound and fury, Oklahoma’s 2022 gubernatorial election was remarkably similar to 2018’s in votes counted, party split and plot line: a Democratic candidate running on preserving public education takes a majority of votes from the state’s three largest counties but Stitt hammers them 2-to-1 in the other 74 combined.

Republicans were closing in Wednesday on a narrow House majority while control of the Senate hinged on a series of tight races in a midterm election that defied expectations of sweeping conservative victories driven by frustration over inflation and President Joe Biden’s leadership. “The main takeaway is that there was a red wave last night, but it started in Florida and it ended in Florida,” George Washington University Professor Todd Belt told the Associated Press. “The other main takeaway is that you’ve got to look at the Gen Z voters,” he said. “They were highly animated by the issue of abortion, and that really flew under the radar of a lot of the polls that were out there.” Either party could secure a Senate majority with wins in both Nevada and Arizona — where the races were too early to call. But there was a strong possibility that, for the second time in two years, the Senate majority could come down to a runoff in Georgia next month, with Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker failing to earn enough votes to win outright.


It was true in 2018 when Drew Edmondson was the Democrat, and it was even more true in 2022.

Hofmeister’s slim path to success depended upon her convincing at least some of those voters in the other 74 counties that Stitt and his hand-picked state superintendent, Ryan Walters, are a threat to their schools.

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But in the final, unofficial returns posted Tuesday night, Stitt won 63.4% of the vote in those counties — actually higher than the 60.8% he received in 2018, when Edmondson narrowly carried two rural counties in eastern Oklahoma (but lost Tulsa County).

Stitt’s margin of 193,000 votes in the rest of the state in this election easily offset Hofmeister’s 35,000-vote advantage from Oklahoma, Tulsa and Cleveland counties, all of which she carried.

It should be noted that while carrying 74 counties to three sounds like an obvious advantage, not all counties are created electorally equal. Oklahoma, Tulsa and Cleveland counties accounted for about 44% of the gubernatorial vote in both 2018 and 2022.

Tuesday’s results create an interesting scenario going forward. Stitt promised the voters most responsible for his reelection that the school voucher reforms he and Walters plan will not hurt their schools, yet he has told urban audiences one of his goals is more private religious schools to compete with rural and suburban districts.

Many education officials say it will be impossible to send state money to private schools without defunding public schools, even if the vouchers are limited to the Tulsa and Oklahoma City metro areas, as some have suggested.

Stitt, Walters and school choice advocates insist otherwise. School vouchers were shot down in the Legislature last session, but Republicans who led the resistance were subjected to intense dark-money campaigns in this year’s GOP primaries. All but one survived.

Speaking of dark money, at least $20 million of it was spent against Stitt. Considering that he got 55.5% of the vote this time compared to 54.3% in 2018, it’s hard to argue that the blitz of mostly negative advertising made much of a difference.

Besides educators, Tuesday’s results would seem to be a blow to Oklahoma’s tribal governments, the largest of which aligned themselves against Stitt.

Stitt and the tribes battled throughout his first term largely over gaming and sovereignty issues, and a U.S. Supreme Court suddenly less sympathetic to native nations raises the specter of more conflict.

“Over the past several months, Oklahoma tribal leaders have made it clear that we want to have a less adversarial, and more collaborative relationship with our state government,” Cherokee Principal Chief Chuck Hoskin Jr. said in a written statement Wednesday. “We hope that now that the election is over, Gov. Stitt will take a genuine interest in working with — not against — tribal governments.

“Though last night’s election results are not what I hoped for, tribes have sent a clear message that politicians who attack tribal sovereignty will face fierce and determined opposition. Leaders can always choose a different path and seek common ground. It is incumbent upon all leaders in this state, including tribal leaders, to seek common ground where we can.”

While winning handily, Stitt underperformed the rest of the statewide Republican ticket. That includes Walters, who received about 11,000 more votes and a 1.25 percentage point larger share than Stitt did, but against only one opponent — Democrat Jena Nelson — instead of Stitt’s three.

Nelson also had more votes and a larger share than Hofmeister, making her the Democrats’ largest vote-getter.

Nelson carried Oklahoma and Cleveland counties by margins similar to Hofmeister’s but lost Tulsa County to Walters by 5,200 votes. She did carry Payne County, where Walters’ popularity may have been damaged by an attack on Stillwater Public Schools.

Other statewide Republicans, though, all scored in the mid-60s against Democratic opponents. Attorney general candidate Gentner Drummond, with no Democrat on the balance, topped out at 74% against Libertarian Lynda Steele and led all Republicans with 791,763 votes.

2018-2022 comparison

  2018 2022
Gubernatorial votes 1,186,385 1,152,162
for Republican 644,579 638,910
for Democrat 500,973 481,396
Turnout 56.15% 50.30%


The incumbent Republican beat out Democrat Joy Hofmeister and two other candidates.

Ryan Walters wins high-profile race for state superintendent

The Republican defeats Democrat Jena Nelson to succeed two-term incumbent Joy Hofmeister in January. #oklaed

Markwayne Mullin, James Lankford sail to Senate victories

The victories extended Republicans’ U.S. Senate winning streak in Oklahoma to 30 years, with the GOP having won every race beginning with Don Nickles’s third term in 1992.

Tulsa County prosecutor ekes out win over special judge in tight race for district judgeship

Tulsa County prosecutor Kevin Gray and Special Judge Tanya Wilson share a number of similarities, which may have contributed to the close race. 

Tulsa County assessor, District 1 commissioner win reelection

County Assessor John Wright and District 1 County Commissioner Stan Sallee get new terms.

Dana Prieto upsets J.J. Dossett in area state legislative election; open seats split between Republicans, Democrats

All Tulsa-area state legislative incumbents except one were reelected Tuesday in the statewide general election, while Republicans and Democrats split four open seats, according to unofficial results from the Oklahoma State Election Board.

Republicans easily sweep Oklahoma congressional races

Four incumbents — Kevin Hern, Frank Lucas, Tom Cole and Stephanie Bice — and former state Sen. Josh Brecheen of Coalgate won the lone open seat.

Two of three incumbent city councilors lose in runoff elections Tuesday

Grant Miller edged Mykey Arthrell in District 5, and longtime Councilor Connie Dodson lost to Christian Bengel in District 6.

Pinnell leads GOP wave on down-ballot races

As expected, Tulsa lawyer Gentner Drummond, easily won the state’s attorney general race.

Statewide, area legislative, Tulsa County and Tulsa City Council election results

Unofficial results, according to the Oklahoma State Election Board.

Poll workers fail to give dozens of District 5 voters City Council ballots

Election officials say 30 voters did not get ballots for the City Council race pitting incumbent Mykey Arthrell against challenger Grant Miller. 

Following the candidates: Stitt casts himself as political outsider while seeking second term

Tulsa World spent time on the campaign trail to learn about the discussions those seeking the governor’s seat are having with Oklahomans ahead of the Nov. 8 election.

Following the candidates: Joy Hofmeister supporters come from both parties

Tulsa World spent time on the campaign trail to learn about the discussions those seeking the governor’s seat are having with Oklahomans ahead of the Nov. 8 election.

Whether you agree with our preferences or not, we urge you to vote.

Most will go to the polls Nov. 8 to vote for the state’s next governor, both U.S. senators, and more.

Check out our latest digital-only offer and subscribe now

Check out our latest digital-only offer and subscribe now: Tulsaworld.com/subscribe

randy.krehbiel@tulsaworld.com

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Tags: candidateclevelanddrew edmondsoneconomicselectionfinal resultfurygopinstitutesjoy hofmeisterkevin stittmajoritynelsonpoliticsre-electionrepublican-turned-democratrepublicansryan waltersscenarioshowsweatvotevoucher
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