Suburban and rural voters make Stitt a winner — again

For all of its sound and fury, Oklahoma’s 2022 gubernatorial election was remarkably similar to 2018’s in votes counted, party split and plot line: a Democratic candidate running on preserving public education takes a majority of votes from the state’s three largest counties but Stitt hammers them 2-to-1 in the other 74 combined.

It was true in 2018 when Drew Edmondson was the Democrat, and it was even more true in 2022.

Hofmeister’s slim path to success depended upon her convincing at least some of those voters in the other 74 counties that Stitt and his hand-picked state superintendent, Ryan Walters, are a threat to their schools.

But in the final, unofficial returns posted Tuesday night, Stitt won 63.4% of the vote in those counties — actually higher than the 60.8% he received in 2018, when Edmondson narrowly carried two rural counties in eastern Oklahoma (but lost Tulsa County).

Stitt’s margin of 193,000 votes in the rest of the state in this election easily offset Hofmeister’s 35,000-vote advantage from Oklahoma, Tulsa and Cleveland counties, all of which she carried.

It should be noted that while carrying 74 counties to three sounds like an obvious advantage, not all counties are created electorally equal. Oklahoma, Tulsa and Cleveland counties accounted for about 44% of the gubernatorial vote in both 2018 and 2022.

Tuesday’s results create an interesting scenario going forward. Stitt promised the voters most responsible for his reelection that the school voucher reforms he and Walters plan will not hurt their schools, yet he has told urban audiences one of his goals is more private religious schools to compete with rural and suburban districts.

Many education officials say it will be impossible to send state money to private schools without defunding public schools, even if the vouchers are limited to the Tulsa and Oklahoma City metro areas, as some have suggested.

Stitt, Walters and school choice advocates insist otherwise. School vouchers were shot down in the Legislature last session, but Republicans who led the resistance were subjected to intense dark-money campaigns in this year’s GOP primaries. All but one survived.

Speaking of dark money, at least $20 million of it was spent against Stitt. Considering that he got 55.5% of the vote this time compared to 54.3% in 2018, it’s hard to argue that the blitz of mostly negative advertising made much of a difference.

Besides educators, Tuesday’s results would seem to be a blow to Oklahoma’s tribal governments, the largest of which aligned themselves against Stitt.

Stitt and the tribes battled throughout his first term largely over gaming and sovereignty issues, and a U.S. Supreme Court suddenly less sympathetic to native nations raises the specter of more conflict.

“Over the past several months, Oklahoma tribal leaders have made it clear that we want to have a less adversarial, and more collaborative relationship with our state government,” Cherokee Principal Chief Chuck Hoskin Jr. said in a written statement Wednesday. “We hope that now that the election is over, Gov. Stitt will take a genuine interest in working with — not against — tribal governments.

“Though last night’s election results are not what I hoped for, tribes have sent a clear message that politicians who attack tribal sovereignty will face fierce and determined opposition. Leaders can always choose a different path and seek common ground. It is incumbent upon all leaders in this state, including tribal leaders, to seek common ground where we can.”

While winning handily, Stitt underperformed the rest of the statewide Republican ticket. That includes Walters, who received about 11,000 more votes and a 1.25 percentage point larger share than Stitt did, but against only one opponent — Democrat Jena Nelson — instead of Stitt’s three.

Nelson also had more votes and a larger share than Hofmeister, making her the Democrats’ largest vote-getter.

Nelson carried Oklahoma and Cleveland counties by margins similar to Hofmeister’s but lost Tulsa County to Walters by 5,200 votes. She did carry Payne County, where Walters’ popularity may have been damaged by an attack on Stillwater Public Schools.

Other statewide Republicans, though, all scored in the mid-60s against Democratic opponents. Attorney general candidate Gentner Drummond, with no Democrat on the balance, topped out at 74% against Libertarian Lynda Steele and led all Republicans with 791,763 votes.